Bayesian Process Tracing

Research & Design:   Prof. Justin Esarey , Wake Forest University

Instructions: First, use the theory tab below to specify the theory you wish to test, the type of test you wish to conduct, and your prior belief about how likely the theory is to be true. Then, use the evidence tab to specify pieces of evidence you have collected and the likelihood that evidence would exist if the theory were true or false. Finally, use the inference tab to determine the rational posterior beliefs you should have about the truth of the theory given your prior beliefs and the evidence offered.